Introduction: The Great Deceleration – A Market Cools While Records Tumble
The Singapore HDB resale market in 2025 presents a fascinating paradox. On one hand, headline figures trumpet a clear and decisive slowdown, with price growth moderating to its slowest pace in five years.1 On the other, newspaper columns are filled with stories of HDB flats smashing price records, with the million-dollar club expanding faster than ever.3
This apparent contradiction is the defining feature of the current market landscape, creating both confusion and opportunity for homebuyers and sellers. This report will unpack this complex narrative, providing a definitive guide for navigating the “new normal” in the second half of 2025.
The HDB resale market is not simply cooling; it is bifurcating. A mainstream market, comprising the bulk of standard 3-, 4-, and 5-room flats, is stabilizing under the dual pressures of increased Build-To-Order (BTO) supply and broader economic caution.
This moderation is creating a more balanced and favorable environment for discerning buyers. Simultaneously, a premium, supply-starved segment—characterized by rare flat types, prime locations, and newly MOP-ed (Minimum Occupation Period) units—is accelerating, driven by unique attributes and strong demand from cash-rich buyers making value comparisons against the private property market.
Understanding this dual-track market is the key to making informed decisions in Q3 and Q4 2025.
This deep dive will first review the market’s performance in the first half of the year, establishing the data-driven foundation for our analysis. It will then deconstruct price trends by flat type and estate, explore the powerful forces of supply and demand shaping the market, and provide a strategic playbook for different buyer and seller profiles.
Finally, this report will conclude with a data-driven forecast for the rest of the year and a look ahead to the market’s trajectory into 2026 and beyond.
Section 1: The Big Picture: A Market in Transition (H1 2025 Review)
After a period of relentless price escalation following the pandemic, 2025 marks a definitive shift in the Singapore HDB resale market’s momentum. The first half of the year was characterized by a clear and consistent trend of price moderation, signaling a transition towards a more sustainable and balanced state.
This cooling is not an isolated event but the culmination of policy interventions, economic headwinds, and a tangible increase in buyer resistance to ever-higher asking prices.
The most telling indicator of this transition is the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI), which has now recorded three consecutive quarters of slowing growth.1 The deceleration began in late 2024 and became more pronounced through the first half of 2025:
- In Q4 2024, the RPI grew by a robust 2.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q).5
- By Q1 2025, growth had slowed significantly to 1.6% q-o-q, marking the slowest quarterly increase in five quarters at the time.5
- Flash estimates for Q2 2025 show this trend continuing, with the RPI rising by just 0.9% q-o-q. This represents the lowest quarterly price increase since the second quarter of 2020, a period of significant economic uncertainty.1
Cumulatively, HDB resale prices climbed by 2.5% in the first half of 2025. While still a positive gain, this is a substantial slowdown compared to the 4.2% increase recorded in the first half of 2024, confirming that the market’s velocity has changed.4
Transaction volumes paint a similar picture of a market finding its footing. In Q1 2025, 6,590 resale flats were transacted, a slight 2.6% increase from the previous quarter but a 6.8% decline on a year-on-year basis.5 The second quarter saw a seasonal uptick in activity with 6,981 transactions, a 5.9% increase from Q1, but this figure was still 5.0% lower than the volume seen in the same period last year.1
Analysts project that the full-year transaction volume for 2025 will likely fall between 26,000 and 28,000 units, a healthy but not spectacular figure that reflects stable underlying demand.2
The consistent deceleration from 2.6% to 0.9% is not merely a statistical trend; it is evidence of a market that has reached a psychological ceiling for mainstream flats. After a staggering cumulative price gain of over 52% since the second quarter of 2020 5, the average buyer is now demonstrating significant price resistance.
This fatigue is a natural market correction, as affordability becomes a primary concern for households weighing their options against a backdrop of modest economic growth forecasts of 0.0% to 2.0% for 2025.11 Prospective buyers are increasingly unwilling to pay ever-higher prices, forcing sellers to moderate their expectations and contributing to a more balanced negotiation landscape.7
However, it is crucial to interpret this slowdown correctly. A moderation to 0.9% growth signifies a market that is normalizing, not crashing. A market collapse would be characterized by negative price growth and a sharp drop in transaction volumes. The data shows neither.
Prices are still appreciating, albeit at a much slower pace, and transaction volumes remain robust, indicating that fundamental demand from Singaporean households and owner-occupiers is resilient.5 Property analysts have described this shift as “more sustainable and healthier” for the long-term stability of the HDB resale market.3
The market is not in distress; rather, it is transitioning from a period of superheated growth to a more sustainable and predictable trajectory.
Section 2: Price Deconstruction: A Tale of Two Tiers
Beneath the headline figure of moderating growth lies a more complex and divergent reality. The HDB resale market in 2025 is not moving as a single, monolithic block. Instead, it has bifurcated into two distinct tiers, each driven by different supply-and-demand dynamics.
A detailed analysis of price performance by flat type and estate reveals a market where scarcity and unique attributes are increasingly commanding a premium, even as the broader market cools.
Performance by Flat Type: The Scarcity Premium
The price trends across different flat types in Q2 2025 provide the clearest evidence of this two-tiered market. While the most common flat types saw their price growth slow, the rarest and largest flat type accelerated, defying the overall market trend.
- The Outperformer (Executive Flats): Prices for Executive flats jumped by an impressive 3.8% q-o-q in Q2 2025. This was a significant acceleration from the 1.5% gain recorded in Q1 and stands in stark contrast to the moderating growth seen elsewhere.2 This surge is underpinned by a pick-up in transaction volume for these units after two quarters of decline and is fundamentally driven by their scarcity. As these large flats are no longer being built by HDB, they represent a finite and highly desirable asset for families prioritizing space.
- The Moderators (4- and 5-Room Flats): The price growth for the market’s workhorses, the 4- and 5-room flats, slowed considerably. Average prices for 4-room flats increased by 1.3% q-o-q, while 5-room flats saw a 1.2% q-o-q rise. This is a notable deceleration from the growth rates of around 2.0% and 2.1% respectively, seen in the first quarter.2
- The Stable Base (2- and 3-Room Flats): Smaller flats also experienced moderating price growth. Average prices for 3-room flats grew by 2.1% q-o-q, easing from 2.2% in Q1, while 2-room flats saw a slight slowdown from 1.5% to 1.4% q-o-q growth.2
This divergence demonstrates that scarcity is now a more powerful price driver than general market sentiment. The acceleration in Executive flat prices while the rest of the market cools is a classic symptom of a scarcity-driven sub-market.
Buyers seeking space are willing to pay a substantial premium for a product that is no longer in production, effectively insulating this segment from the broader market’s price moderation and establishing it as a distinct asset class within the HDB ecosystem.
Performance by Estate: Redefining “Top Performing”
The concept of a “best performing” HDB estate has also become more nuanced in 2025. Performance is no longer solely defined by the highest absolute prices, but also by transaction velocity and affordability, which indicate strong underlying demand.
- Mature Estates: These centrally located towns remain the undisputed epicenter of high-value transactions. In Q1 2025, over 90% of all million-dollar flat deals occurred in mature estates.7 Towns such as
Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Queenstown, Bishan, and Kallang/Whampoa consistently top the charts for the highest-priced transactions, benefiting from their prime locations, established transport networks, and a higher concentration of larger, unique, and older flat models that appeal to a specific buyer demographic.4 - Non-Mature Estates: While their median prices are lower, these estates are “top performing” on a different metric: transaction volume. In Q1 2025, the five most popular HDB towns among buyers were Tampines, Sengkang, Woodlands, Yishun, and Jurong West. Together, they accounted for a staggering 36.2% of all resale transactions, indicating a deep and liquid market driven by first-time buyers and upgraders seeking affordability and value.7 However, these areas are not immune to high prices, with record-breaking transactions for unique units, such as an Executive flat in Jurong East (Toh Guan Road) fetching $1.168 million, demonstrating that premium value can be found across the island.17
This dual reality means that buyers and sellers must look beyond simple averages. For sellers in mature estates with large or unique flats, the market remains strong. For buyers seeking affordability and a higher chance of a successful transaction, the high-volume non-mature estates offer a wealth of options.
To provide a concrete benchmark for homebuyers, the following table details the median resale prices across all HDB towns for various flat types, based on the latest available official data for Q1 2025.
Table 1: Median HDB Resale Prices by Town and Flat Type (Q1 2025)
| Town | 3-Room ($) | 4-Room ($) | 5-Room ($) |
| Ang Mo Kio | 442,500 | 583,900 | 870,000 |
| Bedok | 430,000 | 588,000 | 778,000 |
| Bishan | – | 763,000 | – |
| Bukit Batok | 420,000 | 580,000 | 750,000 |
| Bukit Merah | 430,000 | 925,000 | 1,060,000 |
| Bukit Panjang | 450,000 | 560,000 | 680,000 |
| Bukit Timah | – | – | 1,024,000 |
| Central Area | 505,000 | 1,150,000 | – |
| Choa Chu Kang | 440,000 | 540,000 | 640,000 |
| Clementi | 460,000 | 900,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Geylang | 410,000 | 700,000 | 834,000 |
| Hougang | 420,000 | 580,000 | 700,000 |
| Jurong East | 423,000 | 555,000 | 695,000 |
| Jurong West | 408,000 | 520,000 | 620,000 |
| Kallang/Whampoa | 450,000 | 828,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Marine Parade | 480,000 | 620,000 | – |
| Pasir Ris | 480,000 | 588,000 | 680,000 |
| Punggol | 490,000 | 600,000 | 700,000 |
| Queenstown | 480,000 | 948,000 | 1,100,000 |
| Sembawang | 455,000 | 565,000 | 635,000 |
| Sengkang | 480,000 | 590,000 | 680,000 |
| Serangoon | 450,000 | 625,000 | 820,000 |
| Tampines | 460,000 | 600,000 | 750,000 |
| Toa Payoh | 430,000 | 948,000 | 1,124,000 |
| Woodlands | 420,000 | 552,000 | 658,300 |
| Yishun | 425,000 | 545,000 | 668,000 |
Source: Housing & Development Board (HDB). Data for Q1 2025. A dash (-) indicates fewer than 20 resale transactions for the quarter. 18
Section 3: The Million-Dollar Club: Defying Gravity
While the broader HDB resale market is experiencing a gentle deceleration, its most exclusive segment is accelerating at a breakneck pace.
The “million-dollar club”—comprising HDB flats sold for seven figures or more—is not just resilient to the cooling trend; it is actively defying it, setting new records for both transaction volume and price quantum.
This phenomenon highlights the deep bifurcation of the market and reveals a powerful demand for premium public housing that operates on a different set of economic principles.
Record-Breaking Volume and Spreading Influence
The growth in million-dollar transactions has been exponential. The market has witnessed consecutive quarters of record-breaking sales volumes, indicating that demand in this tier is intensifying, not waning.
- In Q1 2025, a record 348 million-dollar flats were sold. This represented a significant 22.1% increase from the previous quarter and accounted for approximately 5.5% of all resale transactions.5
- This record was immediately shattered in Q2 2025, which saw an estimated 415 such transactions—a stunning 19% q-o-q increase. These high-value deals now constitute about 6% of the total resale market volume.3
This trend is not just about volume; it’s also about the broadening base of the million-dollar segment. What was once the exclusive domain of rare, large flats in central locations is now encompassing a wider variety of flat types and estates.
In Q2 2025, the record 415 sales included an unprecedented 168 units of 4-room flats, along with 129 units of 5-room flats and 116 executive flats.4
Furthermore, while mature estates remain the primary hotspots, million-dollar transactions are increasingly appearing in non-mature towns like Woodlands, Jurong East, Hougang, and Yishun, signaling a wider acceptance of premium pricing for exceptional units regardless of their broader estate classification.15
New Price Ceilings and Hotspot Analysis
The prices being achieved are as remarkable as the volumes. In June 2025, a new benchmark was set for a 5-room flat when a 122-square-metre premium apartment loft unit on Dawson Road in Queenstown was sold for nearly $1.659 million.3 This was complemented by a record for a 4-room flat set in March at the iconic Pinnacle@Duxton, which transacted for
$1.518 million.15
Analysis of transaction data for the first half of 2025 reveals clear hotspots where this activity is concentrated:
Table 2: Top 5 Estates for Million-Dollar Transactions (H1 2025)
| Rank | HDB Town | Estimated Million-Dollar Transactions (H1 2025) | Key Drivers |
| 1 | Toa Payoh | 148 | Newly MOP-ed Bidadari clusters, central location, DBSS projects |
| 2 | Bukit Merah | ~71 | Proximity to CBD, popular Tiong Bahru area, unique older flats |
| 3 | Queenstown | ~62 | Dawson precinct premium flats, city-fringe location, established amenities |
| 4 | Kallang/Whampoa | ~21 | City-fringe convenience, riverfront views, newer resale flats |
| 5 | Bishan | ~20 | Reputation for top schools, large flat sizes (e.g., maisonettes), central location |
Source: Synthesized from PropNex, EdgeProp, and news reports. Figures are estimates based on reported data for Q1 and Q2 2025. 4
Toa Payoh has emerged as the undisputed leader, largely fueled by flats in the Bidadari estate (such as those along Alkaff Crescent and Bidadari Park Drive) reaching their 5-year MOP.4 These units offer buyers modern layouts, a full 99-year lease, and a prime city-fringe location, a combination that commands a significant premium.
This “MOP lottery” effect is a key catalyst, creating predictable surges of high-value listings as well-located BTO projects mature and enter the resale market.
The relentless growth of this segment has led property analysts to revise their forecasts upwards. PropNex now anticipates that the number of million-dollar flats transacted in 2025 could exceed 1,300, a figure that would comfortably surpass the previous record of 1,035 units set in 2024.4
The primary driver for this premium segment is a rational, cross-market value comparison. As private condominium prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and even the Outside Central Region (OCR) continue to climb, a large, well-located, high-floor HDB flat for $1.2 million to $1.5 million is increasingly seen as offering “more bang for the buck”.5
For a price-conscious family, the choice between a spacious 1,300 sq ft HDB flat in a prime location versus a much smaller private unit in a similar area becomes a straightforward decision based on lifestyle priorities.
For those who value space and location over condominium facilities, the premium HDB resale flat has become the superior value proposition.
Section 4: Market Forces: The Push and Pull of Supply and Demand
The HDB resale market’s trajectory in the second half of 2025 is being shaped by a fascinating tug-of-war between powerful, and often opposing, market forces. The current state of moderated growth is not a simple organic cooldown but a complex equilibrium created by significant government policy interventions, cyclical supply shifts, and a cautious macroeconomic environment.
Understanding these push-and-pull factors is essential to forecasting where the market is headed.
The “Pull” Factor (Price Anchor): A Deluge of New Flats
The most significant force tempering resale price growth is the massive and sustained injection of new flats directly from HDB. This strategy is designed to absorb demand, particularly from first-time buyers, and provide a crucial anchor against runaway prices in the resale market.
- Unprecedented Supply: HDB is on track to launch a substantial number of new flats in 2025, including approximately 19,600 BTO units and over 8,500 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) units.1 The February 2025 sales exercise alone was one of the largest ever, offering over 10,000 BTO and SBF flats combined.7 The upcoming July 2025 exercise will continue this trend, with around 5,500 BTO flats and another 3,000 SBF units on offer.1
- Drawing Demand Away: This ample supply provides a highly attractive alternative for buyers, especially those who are not in an urgent need of housing. The availability of subsidized flats in both mature and non-mature estates directly diverts a significant portion of demand that would otherwise have entered the resale market, thereby contributing to the observed price moderation.4
The “Push” Factor (Price Support): A Scarcity of Newly MOP-ed Flats
Counteracting the downward pressure from BTO supply is a severe, albeit temporary, shortage of newly MOP-ed flats entering the resale market. These newer flats (typically 5-10 years old) are highly sought after for their long remaining leases, modern layouts, and better condition, and their scarcity is a key factor supporting prices in this specific segment.
- An 11-Year Low: The number of HDB flats reaching their 5-year MOP in 2025 is estimated to be around 8,000 units.7 This is the lowest figure in over a decade and a dramatic drop from the highs of previous years, where up to 30,000 flats became eligible for resale annually.
- Supply Squeeze: This trough in supply, a lingering consequence of construction timelines and BTO launch schedules from five to seven years ago, has created a supply-side squeeze for the most desirable resale units. This intense competition for a limited pool of “as-good-as-new” flats is a primary reason why prices for these specific units have remained resilient and, in some cases, continued to climb despite the broader market slowdown.4
This dynamic has created a state of “manufactured equilibrium.” The current market stability is the direct result of these two opposing, large-scale forces.
The massive BTO supply acts as a deliberate price ceiling on the mainstream market, while the MOP supply trough acts as a price floor for the premium segment. This delicate balance explains why the market is moderating in a controlled manner rather than swinging wildly in one direction.
The Policy Wildcard and Economic Backdrop
Two other critical factors will influence the market in the second half of 2025: a key policy review and the broader economic climate.
- The 15-Month Wait-Out Period: Introduced in September 2022, this measure requires private property owners to wait 15 months after selling their property before they can buy a non-subsidised HDB resale flat.2 It was a direct intervention to cool demand from cash-rich downgraders. With the market now visibly moderating, there is growing consensus among analysts and even hints from the Ministry of National Development that it is “timely” to review or even remove this temporary measure.9
The removal of this rule would be the single biggest potential catalyst for a re-acceleration of the market, particularly for larger 5-room and Executive flats, as it would unleash a wave of pent-up demand and capital back into the resale segment. - Economic and Financial Climate: Singapore’s GDP growth is forecast to be modest for the full year, encouraging financial prudence among homebuyers.11 However, a positive development is the easing of interest rates. After a period of rapid hikes, fixed home loan rates began to dip below 3% in 2025, improving mortgage affordability and potentially lifting buyer sentiment in the latter half of the year.28
Section 5: Your 2025 HDB Playbook: Strategic Advice for Every Profile
The complex interplay of market forces in 2025 creates distinct challenges and opportunities for different segments of the population. Navigating this bifurcated market requires a tailored strategy. This section translates the preceding analysis into clear, actionable advice for first-time buyers, HDB upgraders, private property downgraders, seniors, and sellers.
For First-Time Buyers: The Year of Choice
For the first time in several years, first-time buyers are not merely reacting to a runaway market but are empowered with genuinely viable choices. The decision is no longer just “can I afford a resale flat?” but a more strategic consideration of time, cost, and location.
- The BTO vs. Resale Dilemma: The government’s aggressive BTO launch schedule is the most significant advantage for first-timers. With 19,600 BTO flats slated for 2025, including a substantial 3,800 units with shorter waiting times of less than three years, the path to a new, subsidized home is more accessible than ever.19 However, the moderating resale market presents a compelling alternative for those who prioritize immediate housing.
- Leverage Record-High Grants: The financial equation for resale flats has been transformed by generous government grants. An eligible first-timer family buying a resale flat can receive up to $230,000 in housing grants. This comprises the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant (EHG) of up to $120,000, the CPF Housing Grant (Family Grant) of up to $80,000, and the Proximity Housing Grant (PHG) of up to $30,000.29 These grants can substantially offset the price premium of a resale flat over a BTO unit, making it a financially competitive option.
- Benefit from New Policies: A key policy change taking effect from the July 2025 BTO exercise will provide greater flexibility for young couples. Those where at least one applicant is a full-time student or National Serviceman can now defer their income assessment for an HDB loan until just before key collection.32 This allows them to secure a flat earlier and potentially qualify for a larger loan amount based on their future, higher incomes, expanding their range of affordable housing options.
For HDB Upgraders: Navigating Scarcity and New Frameworks
HDB upgraders face a more complex landscape, needing to balance the desire for more space with the realities of a tight supply of larger flats and a new classification framework for BTOs.
- Understand the New BTO Framework: The introduction of Standard, Plus, and Prime classifications for new BTO flats has long-term implications. Plus and Prime flats, located in more desirable areas, come with stricter conditions, including a 10-year MOP and a subsidy recovery upon resale.33 This makes older resale flats that are free from these restrictions potentially more attractive for buyers who value future flexibility.
- The Premium for Space: For families whose primary goal is to upgrade to a larger home, the data is clear: Executive flats are holding their value and appreciating faster than standard 4- and 5-room flats.2 While the upfront cost is high, their scarcity makes them a unique asset class. Upgraders should weigh the high cost against the long-term value of securing a type of home that is no longer being built.
For Private Property Downgraders & Seniors: A Shifting Landscape
This group is at the center of major policy discussions and enhancements that will significantly impact their housing decisions in the second half of 2025 and beyond.
- The 15-Month Wait-Out Period: For downgraders under the age of 55, this remains the single biggest obstacle to entering the HDB resale market. The increasing discussion around its potential removal is the most critical trend to monitor. Should the rule be relaxed or lifted, it would immediately unlock this segment of demand, likely leading to increased competition for larger resale flats.25
- Game-Changing Enhancements for Seniors: The Silver Housing Bonus (SHB) scheme will be significantly enhanced from 1 December 2025, making right-sizing a far more attractive proposition for seniors aged 55 and above. The key changes include:
- Increased Cash Bonus: The maximum cash bonus for right-sizing to a 3-room or smaller flat will be increased from $30,000 to $40,000.35
- No More Cash Top-Up: Crucially, seniors may no longer need to make a cash top-up to their CPF Retirement Account (RA) to qualify. They can now use their CPF housing refunds from the sale of their previous flat, removing a major barrier to entry.36
- Expanded Eligibility: The scheme will also be extended to include more private property owners.35
These enhancements are expected to create a new and sustained demand floor for smaller resale flats (3-room and smaller) from late 2025 onwards, as more seniors are incentivized to monetize their larger properties.
For Sellers: Pricing and Positioning are Key
In a market that is no longer universally rising, sellers must adopt a more strategic and realistic approach to achieve a successful sale.
- Price Realistically: With buyer price resistance now a major market force, overpricing a property is a critical mistake that can lead to a prolonged and frustrating sales process. Sellers of standard flats, particularly in non-mature estates, must align their expectations with current market conditions. Utilizing HDB’s Resale Flat Prices service and analyzing recent transaction data on property portals is essential for setting a competitive price.38
- Highlight Scarcity and Unique Attributes: Conversely, sellers of properties in the premium tier have a strong value proposition to leverage. If the flat is a rare type like an Executive Maisonette, is located in a newly MOP-ed cluster in a desirable estate like Bidadari, or has unique features like a high floor with an unblocked view, these attributes must be the centerpiece of the marketing strategy to justify and achieve a premium price.
Section 6: Outlook for Q3/Q4 2025 and Beyond: The Great Rebalancing
Synthesizing the data, market forces, and policy shifts, the outlook for the Singapore HDB resale market in the second half of 2025 is one of continued stabilization and bifurcation. While the headline price index is expected to see modest growth, the underlying dynamics point towards a healthier, more balanced market in the long term, driven by a significant rebalancing of supply and demand.
Consolidated Forecasts for 2025
The consensus among leading property analysts is that the rapid price growth of previous years is definitively over. Most have revised their full-year 2025 forecasts downwards to reflect the moderation observed in the first half of the year.
The market is expected to end the year with modest but positive price growth, avoiding a sharp correction while ensuring affordability does not deteriorate further.
Table 3: Summary of Analyst Forecasts for Full-Year 2025
| Property Consultancy | Full-Year HDB Resale Price Growth Forecast | Full-Year HDB Resale Transaction Volume Forecast |
| PropNex Realty | 4% to 5% (revised down from 5-7%) | 27,000 to 28,000 |
| Huttons Asia | 4% to 6% (revised down from 5-8%) | 26,000 to 28,000 |
| ERA Singapore | 3% to 6% | 26,000 to 27,000 |
| OrangeTee Group | 4% to 6% | 25,000 to 27,000 |
Source: Synthesized from various news reports and analyst publications. 2
Estates to Watch in H2 2025
The upcoming BTO launches in the second half of the year will be key bellwethers of buyer demand and will influence sentiment in the surrounding resale markets.
- July 2025 BTO Launch: This exercise will be closely watched for several reasons. High subscription rates are expected for projects in popular mature estates like Bukit Merah, Clementi, and Toa Payoh. The launch in Tampines (Simei) is particularly noteworthy, as it is the first BTO project in that specific area in over a decade and will serve as a crucial test of demand.3
- October 2025 BTO Launch: The debut of the new Mount Pleasant estate will be a major market event. With approximately 1,500 units slated for launch, this project is highly anticipated as many buyers view it as a functional extension of the perennially popular Toa Payoh town, given its central location and upcoming MRT connectivity.3
The Long-Term View (2026 and Beyond): The Great Rebalancing
While the market in 2025 is defined by a tight supply of newly MOP-ed flats, this is a temporary condition. The government’s aggressive BTO building program from 2021 onwards is set to create a “great rebalancing” as these flats progressively enter the resale market upon fulfilling their MOP.
- The Coming Wave of Supply: The MOP supply trough of 2025 will give way to a significant increase in the coming years. The number of flats reaching their MOP is projected to rise to:
- ~13,500 flats in 2026 7
- ~19,500 flats in 2028 7
This substantial increase in the supply of newer resale flats will be a powerful force for long-term price stabilization. It will provide more options for buyers, ease the supply squeeze that is currently supporting premium prices, and ensure the market does not overheat in the years to come.
This long-term outlook suggests that the HDB resale market is entering a “Goldilocks” period for buyers. The combination of moderating prices in H2 2025, gradually easing interest rates, and a massive increase in resale supply coming online from 2026 onwards creates a favorable environment.
The extreme seller’s market of 2021-2023 is definitively over, and the coming years will likely see a more balanced negotiation landscape, giving buyers more choice and greater bargaining power.
Ultimately, the current market moderation is a testament to the effectiveness of the government’s long-term housing strategy. The aggressive ramp-up of BTO supply is successfully managing the demand-supply imbalance that arose post-pandemic.
The current stabilization is the first-stage effect of this policy, and the future market balance will be cemented by the wave of these new flats entering the resale market. This demonstrates a successful, multi-year approach to ensuring the long-term affordability and stability of public housing in Singapore.
Works cited
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